Jumat, 05 Oktober 2012

Stock investors: Don’t fight QE3 in Q4 Commentary: Election year bodes well for market to hit new highs

WHITE PLAINS, N.Y. (MarketWatch) — Despite weak fundamental data, Europe’s debt crisis, escalating geopolitical tensions and the pending “fiscal cliff,” the U.S. stock market continues to drift higher with only an occasional pause.

Markets: What a difference a year makes : From bear market fears and historic volatility to edging toward historic highs, a look at how markets have changed from October 2011 to now

Q4: Be afraid, very afraid
Think the election, now just a month away, as well as Washington gridlock, the "fiscal cliff' and Europe in crisis. Despite recent gains, many investors are still uncertain about the market's staying power.
• 5 charts every investor needs this quarter
• Hulbert: Second-guessing Halloween indicator 
• Why stock investors shouldn't fight 'QE3'
• Cash is king over stocks, bonds and REITs
• Brace for bleak S&P 500 earnings
There’s good reason for this. Central banks the world-round have either pledged to or have already begun to refill the punch bowl. Yet at some point soon, most likely before the middle of next year, the well will run dry again. But for now the market seems to care little about anything except QE3 and European Central Bank rhetoric. Read more: How to brace for more volatile markets.
The Fed has basically backstopped the stock market and said, “We are here.” Reading between the lines of the Fed’s statements it is clear that they are waging all-out war against unemployment the best they can, by throwing bundles of $100 bills at it. Whether they will ultimately succeed or not is anyone’s guess. In the meantime, the old adage “Don’t fight the Fed” is best heeded. Read more: Bearish counterpoint: Cash is king.
As you can see in the chart below, 2012 is on the track of Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI:DJIA)  performances during years when incumbents won reelection. This is an indication that the year will likely hold on to the gains so far and tack on more.
Barring some exogenous event it would not be surprising to see the market pressing on all-time highs in the next three-to-six months. Central banks have the spigots wide open, and the market appears to be signaling that President Barack Obama will win another term. Read more: Stocks should rise in Q4 if history holds.

Tech and telecom season

When our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal occurs, we will look to establish new long positions in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NAR:DIA)  , SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NAR:SPY)  , PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ)   and iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund (NAR:IWM) See: 5 charts every investor needs in Q4.
Plus, October’s penchant for volatility and its place at the beginning of the fourth quarter make this the best time of the year to buy technology stocks. Several tech industries are already beginning their major seasonal up move.
The tech sector has generated an average return of 17.5% over the last 15 years during its bullish season from mid-August to mid-January. I like iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology Sector Index Fund (NAR:IYW)   with a buy limit of $75 and stop-loss of $67.50. Take profits at $96.94.
Jeffrey Hirsch
The Internet sector’s favorable period runs from August to January with a historical return of 27.5% over the last 15 years. Buy First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund(NAR:FDN)   on dips using a buy limit of $37.50, a stop-loss of $33.75, and sell at $52.59.
Semiconductors, meanwhile, average 16.6% from October’s end until the beginning of December over the last 15. Buy SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF(NAR:XSD)   with a buy limit of $42.75, a stop loss of $38.48 and take profits at $54.83. Holiday spending and fresh innovative products are needed to keep this sector rolling.
From early October until the beginning of January Computer Tech has averaged 17.8% over the last 15 years. Buy Select Sector SPDR-Technology (NAR:XLK)   with a buy limit of $30.44, a stop loss of $27.40 and take profits at $39.44. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is now the ETF’s largest holding, at about 21% of total assets. Smartphones and tablets are quickly replacing desktops and laptops. Nearly all of this tech ETF’s holdings are well-positioned to profit from this trend either directly or indirectly.
Over the last 15 years Telecom has generated an average return of 11.3% from mid-October through year-end. Buy iShares Dow Jones U.S. Telecommunications Sector Index Fund (NAR:IYZ)   with a buy limit of $24.71 and stop loss of $22.24. Take profits at $30.25. The exchange-traded fund currently has a Treasury-bond-beating yield of around 3%. There really is no better way to get a refund from your service provider. Plus, analysts expect sales of Apple’s iPhone 5 could be as high as 50 million units in the fourth quarter. That is a lot of new two-year contracts.

Wall of worry

One caveat: As we enter the infamously dangerous month of October — the last month of the market’s “Worst Six Months” — I am no longer one of the lone bulls on The Street. Unlike last fall the market has been on tear, sits near new recovery highs and there are many bulls stampeding into the market.
Indeed, sentiment is getting overly bullish and we have been most successful when we operate contrary to the majority of market commentators and participants. But the bears have not yet thrown in the towel.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report of S&P 500 Index (SNC:SPX)  futures trading shows the Small Speculators, who are notoriously wrong, increasing bullish bets into this rally, but the small specs have only just begun to get bullish and the level of bearishness on The Street remains robust as the market continues to climb the proverbial “Wall of Worry.”
So while we ride the Fed’s latest round of QE and prepare for the seasonal and election driven Q4 rally we are increasingly cautious about the market’s prospects next year. The end of this year or early 2013 may end up proving to be an opportune time to exit the market.

US stock futures rise as jobs report shows gains

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stock futures are rising after a government report showed the U.S.unemployment rate fell below 8 percent for the first time in four years and the economy gained 114,000 jobs in September.
The report comes with just over a month to go before the U.S. presidential election.
Dow Jones industrial average futures gained 58 points to 13,556. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 futures rose 7.4 points to 1,463.20. Nasdaq 100 futures added 16.75 points to 2,838.25.
For much of the week, markets have been subdued ahead of the jobs report.
The Labor Department said the unemployment rate declined to 7.8 percent, matching its level in January 2009 when President Barack Obama took office.
Economists had expected the U.S. economy generated some 111,000 jobs during September and predicted that the unemployment rate inched up to 8.2 percent.
The increases reflect both hiring in September, and another 86,000 jobs created in July and August that had previously gone uncounted.
The news was not all rosy — many of the jobs added last month were part time, and the number of people with part-time jobs who wanted full-time work rose 7.5 percent, to 8.6 million. Nevertheless, the improvement in the headline number could impact the dynamics of the race between Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney, which largely centers on the economy.
Stocks were also rising in Europe on the news, adding to earlier gains.
The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares gained 0.8 percent at 5,875.99 while Germany's DAX rose 1.1 percent to 7,391.84. The CAC-40 in France was 1.6 percent higher at 3,456.57.
The gains in Europe came despite the price of Spanish debt rising to worrisome levels, as the government there resists tapping a new bond-buying program from the European Central Bank.
On Thursday night, Spain's finance minister Luis de Guindos insisted that the country "doesn't need a bailout." While the country may not want rescue loans for its government, it may still approach the eurozone's emergency funds, which would let the ECB to start buying Spanish bonds, keeping a lid on the country's near-term borrowing rates.
Earlier, Asian stocks advanced, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index closing up 0.4 percent at 8,863.30 after the Bank of Japan announced no change in the country's key interest rate following a two-day policy meeting.
South Korea's Kospi gained 0.1 percent to 1,995.17 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.5 percent to 21,012.38.
Markets in China are closed for a public holiday.
U.S. stocks to watch include Wet Seal Inc., after the troubled retailer's chairman and three board members stepped down, replaced by nominees from activist shareholder The Clinton Group, which had been waging a proxy fight in an attempt to oust the chain's leadership. Wet Seal shares rose 3.5 percent to $3.25 in premarket trading.
Zynga Inc. dropped sharply in premarket trading after the online game maker said that it expects a third-quarter loss due to weak demand for some of its titles and a charge related to an acquisition. The stock plunged 56 cents, or 19.7 percent, to $2.26 before the market open.
And Dow component Hewlett-Packard Co.'s shares fell 14 cents to $14.80 in early trading, after Moody's Investors Service said it was reviewing its investment-grade credit rating and may downgrade, after the PC maker cut its profit expectations.
more read here http://news.yahoo.com/us-stock-futures-rise-jobs-report-shows-gains-124538366--business.html

Rabu, 18 Juli 2012

Stocks edge higher in early trading 18-07-2012

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks drifted higher early Wednesday as investors considered the latest corporate earnings and awaited a second day of Congressional testimony from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) was up 30 points, or 0.3%, in early trading. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 5 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) added 26 points, or 0.8%.
Bank of America (BACFortune 500) reported strong quarterly results before the opening bell. IBM (IBMFortune 500) and American Express (AXPFortune 500) will post their quarterly data after the close.
Bernanke will give his semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Service Committee at 10 a.m. ET. It's unlikely he'll veer far from Tuesday's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, when he raised concerns about Europe's debt crisis and the so-called "fiscal cliff" in the United States.
The Fed chief offered few hints about whether the Fed will engage in further economic stimulus, such as a new round of buying up securities, in the months to come.
David Abuaf, chief investment officer at Hefty Wealth Partners, said uneasiness remains rampant. "People just don't know what to expect yet," Abuaf said.
U.S. stocks held on to gains Tuesday. Investors digested Bernanke's Senate testimony and solid corporate earnings reports.
World markets: European stocks rose in afternoon trading. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) rose 0.4%, while the DAX (DAX) in Germany edged up 0.5% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) gained 0.9%.
Despite the advance, anxieties continue to loom over Europe's debt crisis. A decision is not expected for another eight weeks from Germany's highest court on the legality of the eurozone's multinational bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism. And in Spain, Finance Minister Cristóbal Montoro said tax collection must improve soon or the country won't be able to pay its public employees.
The International Monetary Fund said eurozone authorities need to act quickly to form a banking union and take other steps to prevent the crisis from escalating further.
Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) rose 0.4%, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong lost 1.1% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) shed 0.3%.
Economy: The U.S. Census Bureau issued a construction report that failed to meet forecasts. Housing starts in June rose 6.9% from the previous month to an annual rate of 760,000 units -- the highest level in nearly four years -- while building permits eased 3.7%.
At 2 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book, which is a report on economic activity in its 12 regional districts.
CompaniesBank of America beat analysts' expectations, reporting earnings of 19 cents a share on revenue of $22.2 billion. Shares rose more than 1%.
IBM is projected to report earnings of $3.42 a share on $26.7 billion in revenue, while American Express is projected to post earnings of $1.09 a share on $8.1 billion in revenue.
Shares of drug maker VIVUS (VVUS) jumped 10% after the Food and Drug Administration approved the company's new weight loss drug Qsymia.
Credit Suisse (CS) plans to raise capital levels by 15 billion Swiss Francs by the end of the year, bowing to pressure from the Swiss National Bank. Shares of the global banking giant rose 3%.

After the close Tuesday, Intel (INTCFortune 500) reported a slight drop in earnings versus last year but an increase in revenue.
Yahoo (YHOOFortune 500) shares slipped after the company reported middling second-quarter results late Tuesday.
Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro and British pound, but fell versus the Japanese yen.
The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones launched a new index that measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of global currencies. The WSJ Dollar Index, or BUXX, edged higher Wednesday.
Oil for August delivery rose 4 cents to $89.26 a barrel.
Gold futures for August delivery fell $15.70 to $1,573.80 an ounce.
Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 1.48% from 1.50% late Tuesday.  To top of page

Selasa, 17 Juli 2012

DJIA MONTHLY suport resistant 17-07-2012

Chart BMRI 17-07-2012

As stock market fares, so will Obama 17-07-2012

(MoneyWatch) Will President Barack Obama win another term?  If he does, it will have little to do with health care or televised debates. The only thing that matters in his re-election is largely outside of his control, and that is how the stock market performs between now and November. Here's why.
It turns out there is a booming financial market for American politics via an Irish firm called Intrade. You can bet on many political outcomes at Intrade, with the odds of each bet determined by the free market, much like any stock exchange. 
Referring to the robust market for trading in American politics, Carl Wolfenden, exchange operations manager at Intrade, noted that though the company also makes markets to speculate on European politics, such trading isn't nearly as active. Trading in American politics is likely more active because "in America, politics is a blood sport," he said. 
As you might imagine, the U.S. presidential election is the most frequently traded instrument. As of this writing, Obama shares were trading at $5.59 a share. That means a share purchased for $5.59 can be cashed in for $10 after an Obama victory or end up as a worthless security if he loses. Put another way, the $5.59 price translates to the market believing Obama has a 55.9 percent chance of winning.
It appears that, on average, every 1 percent change in stock prices translates to a 1.14 percent change in Obama's prospects of a November victory. In case you think the relationship between U.S. stocks and Obama's chances are random, statistically the odds that this relationship is real are well over 99.999999999 percent.  

I spoke to Brian Montopoli, senior political reporter at CBSNews.com, about the link between the stock market and the upcoming election. He said:
There's no question that the economy is the most important issue in this election. Mitt Romney's central message has been that President Obama does not deserve re-election because he has failed to fully turn the economy around in the wake of the crisis. The president's fortunes are undeniably tied to what happens in terms of GDP growth between now and November.

The stock market, unemployment rate, and rate of GDP growth are probably the best indicators out there of whether President Obama will win another four years. Discouraging numbers on those fronts translate into pessimism among the American people, and the president will have a very hard time defeating Romney if Americans don't think he's improving their economic circumstances.
What this means for Obama
The stock market is a forward indicator of how investors think the economy will perform. Stocks bottomed out in March 2009, long before the economy started turning around. So if stocks sputter between now and November, it bodes ill for the economy and even worse for Obama. But if markets hold or surge, Obama will likely get another four years.  
More specifically, as long as the stock market declines less than 5 percent between now and November, the odds are looking pretty good for the president. Of course, sometimes markets move more than 5 percent in a single day. This translates to an S&P 500 index price of 1,286 or better, or a Dow Jones industrial average price of 12,134 or higher, as being good news for Obama. Lower than these indexes indicates good news for Romney.
more read here

Minggu, 15 Juli 2012

Basic NASDAQ daily chart with key indicators. Intermediate Buy/Sell indications are determined by the 5-10-20 Timer (chart 4 below). 15-07-2012

The NASDAQ 60-minute chart helps understand short-term market health and identify entry and exit points. Strong rallies stay above the blue one-week EMA, and stocks act best when the blue line is above the red. This chart gets noisy around inflection points and trend reversals.

Copper is regarded as a reliable indicator of global economic activity and growth. 15-07-2012